Impact Evaluation: GEF Support to Climate Change Mitigation
Impact Evaluation on Climate Change Mitigation: GEF Support to Market Change in China, India, Mexico and Russia
The Impact Evaluation of Climate Change Mitigation: GEF Support to Market Change in China, India, Mexico and Russia was completed in October 2013. This study, focusing on the impact of climate change mitigation in large emerging markets, was an input to the Fifth Overall Performance Study (OPS5). The evaluation included 18 completed and fully evaluated GEF mitigation projects covering various sectors with opportunities for renewable energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction.
The evaluation reached the following five conclusions: projects had significant direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction impact; broader adoption of technologies, approaches and strategies tested by GEF projects was observed in 17 cases and they included pathways of broader adoption identified in the GEF Theory of Change Framework; projects demonstrating high progress towards impact are those which have adopted comprehensive approaches to address market barriers and specifically targeted supportive policy frameworks; expert and stakeholder opinions on counterfactuals indicate that GEF support initiated processes toward impact in 8 projects, and that in 7 projects GEF support speeded up existing processes, whereas in 2 projects GEF support ensured that existing processes were improved to reach international standards; the methodology to measure GHG emissions and to calculate emission reduction at project completion is not robust and contains uncertainties.